Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Title: The COVID-19 Pandemic: Government vs. Community Action Across the United States
Abstract: Are lockdown policies effective at inducing physical distancing to counter the spread of COVID-19? Can less restrictive measures that rely on voluntary community action achieve a similar effect? Using data from 40 million mobile devices, we find that a lockdown increases the percentage of people who stay at home by 8\% across US counties. Grouping states with similar outbreak trajectories together and using an instrumental variablesapproach, we show that time spent at home can increase by as much as 39\%. Moreover, we show that individuals engage in limited physical distancing even in the absence of such policies, once the virus takes hold in their area. Our analysis suggests that non-causal estimates of lockdown policies' effects can yield biased results. We show that counties where people have less distrust in science, are more highly educated, or have higher incomes see a substantially higher uptake of voluntary physical distancing. This suggests that the targeted promotion of distancing among less responsive groups may be as effective as across-the-board lockdowns, while also being less damaging to the economy.
Author-Name: Brzezinski, Adam
Author-Name: Deiana, Guido
Author-Name: Kecht, Valentin
Author-Name: Van Dijcke, David
File-URL: https://oms-inet.files.svdcdn.com/production/files/BrzezinskiKechtDeianaVanDijcke_18042020_CEPR_2.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: 
Keywords: COVID-19, difference-in-differences, instrumental variables, NPI, community action, physical distancing, big data
Length: 43 pages
Classification-Jel: I12, I18, H12, H75, D04
Creation-Date: 2020-04
Handle: RePEc:amz:wpaper:2020-06